Modeling Oregon’s Clean Energy Future
Evolved Energy Research served as the Oregon Department of Energy’s modeling partner, helping shape and communicate a data-driven roadmap for Oregon’s clean, affordable, and resilient energy future.
The Oregon Department of Energy (ODOE) released the final Oregon Energy Strategy (OES) on November 11, providing a comprehensive roadmap for delivering a clean, reliable, and affordable energy future for the state. Playing a central role in this work, Evolved Energy Research provided the technical modeling that underpins the Strategy’s recommended pathways and near-term actions. Evolved worked on a Clean Energy Transition Institute primed team that included Moment Energy Insights and Rockcress consulting to support ODOE in managing a complex and stakeholder-driven process starting in May 2024 through to the release of the strategy this week.
Led by Evolved Principal Jeremy Hargreaves, our team incorporated stakeholder input to models of Oregon's energy systems and economy. Our analysis found policy and investment pathways that meet Oregon’s energy and emissions targets and answer some of the most pressing questions for planning Oregon’s energy future. We followed this with assessments of how household costs might be impacted by the strategy and the potential air quality benefits. Evolved and our partners on the project communicated the results of this analysis through public meetings, webinars, and sector-specific working groups to help inform the energy strategy.
Key Takeaways from the Oregon Energy Strategy
- Establishes an economy-wide energy strategy organized around five core pathways: efficiency, clean electricity, electrification, low-carbon fuels, and resilience.
- Uses least-cost Reference Scenario modeling, which shows 2050 energy demand 22% below 2024 levels, even as electricity use roughly doubles.
- Demonstrates that alternative scenarios that delay energy efficiency, electrification, and demand response lead to higher overall costs to the economy.
- Underscores mounting climate damages in Oregon and projects significant long-term income losses for residents if global emissions don’t decline.
- Introduces an Equity and Justice Framework with six approaches to guide equitable decision-making, investment, workforce development, and land/resource impacts.
- Outlines 42 near-term legislative and policy actions over the next four years to launch implementation of the Strategy.
The published strategy can be found here:
